'There Will Be No Water' by 2040? Researchers Urge Global Energy Paradigm Shift

'There Will Be No Water' by 2040? Researchers Urge Global Energy Paradigm Shift



DRINK UP.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I believe in God, but not as one thing, not as an old man in the sky. I believe that what people call God is something in all of us. I believe that what Jesus and Mohammed and Buddha and all the rest said was right. It's just that the translations have gone wrong.”
John Lennon

ORGANIZED RELIGION

I'm not much into organized religion. A lot of people seem to be helped by attending church. It helps organize their lives. Helps keep them on track.  But I see way too many professed Christians using religion to defend their own hatreds and fears and close-mindedness. I'm not interested in getting involved with it. I do my best mixing a number of different things, from Buddhism, Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism, Native American beliefs, including numerous things that I've read. Some days it seems pretty diluted, other days, just right. I would call myself spiritual, but not religious, not in the normal sense of the word. Sort of a mongrel. A Heinz 57.

CONGRESS

THE RIGHT-WING, REPUBLICAN DIMWADS CAN'T DO ANYTHING MEANINGFUL OR USEFUL, SO THEY SUE THE PRESIDENT. THERE'S A RESPONSIBLE THING TO SHOW THE WORLD. IF I WERE A TERRORIST, I'D JUST LAUGH, PROBABLY OVER A BEER.

THE SUPREME'S

WHEN THE SUPREME COURT IS IN SESSION, IT LOOKS LIKE A MEETING OF THE OPUS DEI.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"GOD LOVED THE BIRDS AND INVENTED TREES. MAN LOVED THE BIRDS AND INVENTED CAGES."
Jacques Deal

SEND HELP

I FIGURED OUT I'M ALLERGIC TO ALL POLITICIANS, MOST ATTORNEYS, AND A MAJORITY OF MINISTERS. WHENEVER I HEAR OR SEE ONE, I HAVE TO TAKE A PILL. THE WHOLE THING IS VERY ANNOYING. IT'S LIKE A TIC ATTACHING ITSELF TO YOUR SCROTUM. ALL THEY WANT TO DO IS SUCK THE LIFE OUT OF YOU.

MORE GOOD NEWS FROM ARKANSAS

ONE IN THREE ARKANSAS KIDS LIVE IN POVERTY. WE ARE RANKED 41ST IN ECONOMIC WELL-BEING, EDUCATION, HEALTH, AND COMMUNITY. ARKANSAS NEEDS HELP: PLEASE DON'T SEND US COTTON.

The Cost of War

The Cost of War

SUNDAY MORNING PRAYER-WHEN LIFE CRASHES

We have known forever that you call to obedience,
                                     that our obedience to your purposes
                                          brings well-being,
                                     that our departure from you may
                                          bring trouble,
                                     that life proceeds on a tight calculus
                                          of expectation and requirement,
                                     that in your awesome rule there is rigor
                                          along with generosity.

We have set out to be your faithful people
and then we fall into an unintended brokenness.
   We know about alienation from you and loss;
   we know about shame before our neighbors
               and embarrassment in the family;
    we know about the will to hide and become invisible,
    and we are consumed by depths of remorse.

When we are able, we come out of hiding long enough to face you.
                               We know all the cadences of confession and
                                         repentance.
                                   and that we have no secrets not already
                                         known to you.
                                We sense before you our deep dread of failure
                                      and our last shred of innocence gone.

We ask forgiveness and wait,
     at times before your presence we wait a very long time
        as we know of your silence and absence in our bottomness.

But we know more!
We know of your unfailing love,
                     your willing generosity,
                     your readiness to remember our sin no more.

And so,
      after shame before neighbor,
      after embarrassment within family,
      after dread before you,
we wait and then eventually you appear,
                                             you reach,
                                             you speak,
                                             you touch.
You give yourself to us without judgment---
          after we have judged ourselves.

You invite us to your presence,
            to the table of your feast,
            to your walk of companionship,
            to your mission of well-being.
We take timid steps toward home and are welcomed.

Now, in this hour of free-fall,
    be your good self again,
    meet us not according to our flaw
    but according to your generous self-giving;
    Be our Christmas,
       and start the world again;
    Be our Easter,
       and draw us from death to new life;
    Be our Pentecost,
       and breathe on us to begin again;
    Be your full, generous self toward us;
       we will begin again in obedience,
             and as we can obey,
        we will begin again
             in wonder, love, and joy.

Walter Brueggemann

CAN WE RISK IT?

We have been sent dangerously by God's address---called by name, entrusted with risky words, and empowered with authority. We are to tell the truth openly, work for justice, and stand in solidarity with our neighbors. The cost is high, but the purposes are those of the Holy God.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it--always.”
Mahatma Gandhi

ISRAEL FORSAKEN

GOD WILL ABANDON THE CHOSEN ONE'S. EVIL IS EVIL, NO MATTER WHO.

Archie Takes A Bullet Against Homophobia and Gun Nuts | Common Dreams

Archie Takes A Bullet Against Homophobia and Gun Nuts | Common Dreams

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes

Capitalism's Deeper Problem | Common Dreams

Capitalism's Deeper Problem | Common Dreams

FROM FRANK LEEMING-DIRECTOR

pending assumptions made when forecasting Village financial needs 

   July 12, 2014 – Here’s a summary of what’s been going on and what’s coming up on the assessment front:
   After nine months of study, a task force concluded the POA needs more money. If we don’t change the way we do business, we’ll end up with a $22.5-million cash shortfall in 2020. 
   To reach this conclusion, the task force made certain assumptions and added key spending items: 
   • Rebuild Balboa Golf Course next year – $2.7 million.
   • Rebuild Coronado Golf Course in 2019 – $2.2 million.
   • Rebuild DeSoto Pool in 2016 – $2.2 million.
   • The number of unproductive lots will increase 325 a year as they have in the last three.
   • Golf rounds decline 5,816 a year, which they have over the last 12 years.  The task force’s numbers may be low; in the last seven years, rounds are down an average of 12,142 a year.
   • Recreation revenue continues to fall 1.5 percent a year.
   • Most fees would rise 1.5 percent a year.
   • Operating costs would rise 2.5 percent a year, but be offset by a 1 percent improvement in productivity.
   • Road paving spending would be $1.4 million a year.  Historically the POA spent about $2 million a year to maintain Village streets.  That was cut to $924,000 this year.

• • •

   To deal with the all this, the task force is making a three-prong recommendation:
   First, ask members to approve a two-tier assessment plan.  Owners of undeveloped lots would continue to pay $36.68 a month.  Owners of developed lots would pay $65.  Plus: The subsidy of golf would be reduced from $2.5 million a year to $1 million by 2020.
   Second, higher assessments would generate $3 million a year.  This would offset revenue lost from 9,258 unproductive lots: On June 30, there were 6,913 lots which are 60 days or more past due, and 2,345 lots in the POA inventory.  They represent 27.1 percent of our 34,149 total lots.  The money would pay to keep our amenities and infrastructure in tip-top shape.
   Third, financial stability would enable the POA to move forward with a new business plan being developed to re-invigorate the community and increase everyone’s property values.

Moyers & Company: Is the Supreme Court Out of Order? | Common Dreams

Moyers & Company: Is the Supreme Court Out of Order? | Common Dreams



A sorry group of demented Catholics.

AT THIS POINT, RAISING THE DUES, I JUST SAY NO

It is obvious that the residents of Hot Springs Village need to raise the dues we pay for our shared amenities. The amount we pay just cannot be stretched far enough, particularly with so many not paying for unimproved lots.  But there are two overriding problems which causes me to say no to raising the dues at this time:

1. The process the directors used to come to that decision was seriously flawed. They cannot, and should not, be allowed to formulate policy behind closed doors. No form of government is allowed to do this. We elect them. We have a right to see what they are doing, and to understand how they are coming to those conclusions. Anything short of that is a form of governing that we should all object to. Meeting in secret, not allowing the public or press to see what is going on, is a serious blow against the democratic process. As much as we need additional revenue, the process that was used is inexcusable. It null and voids anything that was decided.
2. Unless the figures used to determine future debt can be explained and quantified at the meeting scheduled for July 16, there appear to be seriously wild assumptions being made by the committee that put together this plan, (behind closed doors). I'm not a figures person, so I'm hoping someone will be at the meeting to help get some of the assumptions explained.

So far my vote is NO.
Bruce

THE EDGE

LIFE IS NOT CRYSTAL CLEAR OR CLEAN. YOU GET YOUR HANDS DIRTY. NO AMOUNT OF SANITIZER WILL WIPE AWAY THE TRUTH.

GUEST EDITORIAL

I have some concerns with some of the content in the presentation for the assessment increase.  I thought I’d share my review and I would appreciate some clarifications and answers to questions posed herein.

 

Chart 2:  Implies that HSV Board/POA made adjustments for the downturn in 2008, I along with others pleaded with the Board to make adjustments (documented in emails), which were categorically ignored.  The only adjustments made in budgets were due to unrealized revenue gains resulting from significant fee increase for amenity utilization.

 

Chart 4:  There were many concessions made to NRPI including waving of lot fees for a period of time (may have added up to >$1 million), priority access to lots returned, open gate access for marketing busses, yet no protections for the POA (Property Owners) from default by NRPI on such a large block of lots.  There should have been escrowed funds and lot return agreements in case of default, but none were included.  The result is the 3,500+ lots we have in limbo held by the Arkansas State Land Commission.

 

Chart 5:  The Board has always seemed to look for the easy and usually wrong answer.  The main reason for reduction in golf rounds is higher costs levied on a population with a fixed income that also experience other required expenses increasing (energy, medical, food, etc.) (see chart 13 comments below).  Yes aging is part of the reason, the financial crisis is a significant contributor but fee increases is the major driving factor and the Boards/POA have ignored all except “aging population”.  Revenues were never realized from fee increases!

 

POA Revenue from Amenities & Services (extracted from POA data)

		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Fees for Service	YE bud		$16,741,600	$17,019,400	$16,155,190	$16,647,120	$16,262,733
	YE act	$15,252,100	$15,147,500	$15,581,700	$15,698,007	$16,651,280	$15,243,933

Note: the change year over year even as the Board/POA raised fees, more than doubling the golf green fee over this time period.  Yet the Board keeps raising fees, why?

 

Chart 6:  (See comment for chart 5) Additionally consider that rapidly increasing fees may well have signaled potential new residents not to move here unless they could afford to pay the year over year increasing costs resulting from Board/POA policies and if you plotted the trend line from 2006 to present, it’s scary, no one can afford the amenities.  Potential resident owners expectations were dashed for enjoying the amenities they originally bought for.

 

Chart 7:  Pretty chart but useless with no static’s or analysis to go with it.  It shows that developed lots are primarily on lakes and golf courses, but there are plenty of lots that can be developed just for the amenities if one can afford to utilize them.  That is one of Twiggs’ jobs is to contain costs and keep amenities in top shape to attract new residents, new “amenities” is not the answer they just create additional liability, we have a good mix of amenities and plenty of excess capacity with what we have today.  I see nothing from the POA and the Marketing effort to attract new residents, do you know who our target market should be, I do!

 

Chart 8:  Where is the analysis, why are people abandoning/turning back lots (I hear a lot of talk and conjecture but no research based analysis) we’re talking big bucks here.  Are there any multi lot owners (if so you’d better start worrying), we know ~3,500 are NRPI, but where is the analysis on how many of these lots are in improved areas (street and service) vs. unimproved or deteriorated areas.  For the amount of money we are talking about the Board/POA needs to get serious on understanding the problem and communicating that to the Members, not just personal opinion talk, where are the number that can stand up to scrutiny.

 

Chart 9:  From my perspective the Board/POA have been doing nothing.  Where are the results of the $2-3 million spent on marketing?  Why are we still building trails that generate no revenue just a maintenance liability?  The trails are lightly utilized because they are single purpose; other communities build black top/concrete trails so they can be used for not only walking but running, bicycling and golf carts to get them off streets.  Why are we re-doing perfectly good golf courses?  No one does that, remember we are a non-profit organization.  Why are we replacing lightly used golf carts with new golf carts?  We should be encouraging private carts reducing the Association’s investment in carts, instead the Board/POA make bad financial decision raising private cart fees from $450 to $650, at $450 the POA is making plenty of money.  I know, I did the analysis I have the numbers.  Other capital expenditures bear review as well. 

 

Chart 10:  You need a lot of backup for this one.

 

Chart 11:  We pay a premium for our water, sewer and waste pickup.  This is totally separate from the assessment or fees.  Throwing these in the mix here is nothing more than “smoke and mirrors” and scare tactics.  You are insulting the members with this chart.

 

Chart 12:  I’m sorry but you did not show the need or define a course of action.  You only used scare tactics and hand waving to claim, “all we need is more money”.  Not mentioning how unwisely our money is currently managed.

 

Chart 13:  This is a worrisome chart, not from what is says about amenities but what it says about the Board/POA perspective on reality.  Golf is our most valuable asset and generates the largest revenue to cover expenses (85-95%) as compared to ALL other amenities whose revenues only cover conservatively 40% of expenses.  The Board seems to be doing everything they can to kill golf, not realizing that without golf you don’t have HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE!  The Ponce De Leon Center requires close to $900,000/yr over revenue to keep operating to serve a small percentage of residents, not that it is a bad amenity but the transparency and rational is lacking.  The POA has the rent for meeting rooms priced so high not even members will rent them.  Why is this place not operated for the benefit of the members?  In 2009 (because these are the only definitive reliable numbers I could get out of the POA) there were 13,076 Property Owner Players that played an average of 15 rounds that year.  So if age is the problem a whole lot of people must have gotten decrepit real fast and golf rounds started declining before 2009.

 

Golf Revenue-Expenses-Capital by Year in Dollars (extracted from POA records)

Year		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Golf Revenue	Budgeted		6,899,900	6,631,800	6,984,840	6,758,490	6,528,936
	Actual	6,043,300	5,706,700	5,860,100	6,517,331	6,841,590	6,080,462
Golf Surcharge	Budgeted		680,000	653,000	$3 rolled into base fee
	Actual	643,500	599,100	589,100	was to go away in 2011
Golf Op Expenses	Budgeted		7,438,900	7,583,600	7,141,490	7,445,581	7,421,976
	Actual	7,264,200	7,332,000	7,062,000	6,813,244	7,478,026	7,533,483
Diff Rev vs Exp		(577,400)	(1,026,200)	(612,800)	(295,913)	(636,436)	(1,453,021)
Golf Capital	Budgeted		1,066,200	710,300	201,690	641,980	971,704
	Actual	1,183,500	694,400	72,800	104,326	695,964	1,031,932
Diff Incld Capital		(1,760,900)	(1,720,600)	(685,600)	(400,239)	(1,332,400)	(2,484,953)

Note: If golf had responsible financial/operational management it could easily be break even, except for capital.

 

This table says that golf is doing well, especially if you put capital as a capital expense and not charge it to operating expenses and even if you do, the $2.5 million figure is shamefully misleading, we are already below $1 million for an operating budget.  This table is right out of POA financial records.  Much more discussion and statistics required.  The only reason it approaches your stated number in 2013 is because the DeSoto re-do/re-do was charged off, and I’ve played DeSoto twice and we didn’t get any value added and have a worst asset than we had before the re-do.

 

Chart 14:  Your conclusions and recommendations are very suspect and not supported by this presentation.  I am concerned that your recommendations will

-         Accelerate lot abandonment,

-         Bring new development to a halt and

-         Just increase the financial burden on Resident Property Owners.

 

The remainder of the presentation is just fill.  Without controls, statistics, responsible financial and operations management our beloved HSV will continue in a negative direction.  We need to get the country club mentality out of influence to the Board and out of high value committees.

 

What the Association needs is:

-         A rational responsible Business Plan, live within the revenue, that is what investors want to see not this runaway cost growth our new GM seems to be promoting

-         Responsible structured Budgeting Process coupled with Financial Reporting that clearly shows Revenues collected vs Expenses for and within each cost center

-         Operations Statistics and Analysis to support rational decision making and provide members insight

-         A real Marketing Plan, I doubt the POA can point to a single new resident for the $2+ million dollars spent.  Where and what is the money being spent for and where is the fact based results analysis.

-         We need an annually updated On-going Operating Plan briefed to members

-         We need accountability for POA management with visible goals

 

Blaming our current condition on Cooper is a folly and smoke screen.  Cooper left the member elected Board in good financial condition, 3-400 new home constructions/yr and 98% of lots sold.  The root cause is the decisions and policies of the member elected Boards that lead to our current status.  But in reality there is plenty of revenue it is just not spent in a responsible manner. 

 

The problems accelerated starting with the 2010 Board and beyond when the Board saw fit to start large fee increases that killed amenity participation and signaled non-resident lot owners what to expect on the magnitude of future expected costs to retire here.  What do you think is the job of the POA, to just spend our money and when they run out come ask for more?  Twiggs and the POA staff are paid well and have good benefits, there’s plenty of revenue, quit operating the POA like the Federal Bureaucracy.

In reality, all you will do with this type of increase is take $30/mo for each lot out of amenity fee spending and realize little or no revenue increase, history proves this.  The only path forward is to operate the POA in a manner to make HSV attractive to new residents and grow the population.  You need to show that HSV is a member focused Association, not a hobby for the POA.

 

It’s not to late to turn around the past ineffective management practices of the POA and change the culture by implementing Best Business Practices to provide structure, discipline, accountability and efficient utilization of our members’ dollars.  This Board could make great strides to ensure our future, but the inclination to continue “business as usual” will spell disaster for Hot Springs Village, regardless of revenue.

 

As shown by the data above, if changes aren’t made in the culture and mindset of the POA it doesn’t matter how much revenue there is it will never be enough.  It reminds me of the Federal Bureaucracy in D.C., spend, spend, spend, no management required.

 

Larry Frazer
A Concerned Resident Property Owner/Investor

QUOTE OF THE DAY

ALL GOOD REPORTERS COMFORT THE AFFLICTED AND AFFLICT THE COMFORTABLE.

The Dead In Gaza | Common Dreams

The Dead In Gaza | Common Dreams



Israel is out of control  God has abandoned them.

WAKE ME UP WHEN IT’S ALL OVER

•         I’d just as soon not hear any more political speeches. They’re all beginning to sound the same. Promises, lies, and deceit. All from a bunch of rich men, and a few women, who care more about themselves and their rich friends than they do about us.

•         The preachers do a lot of talking and say nothing. Not many got a clue about Christ’s life and the example he set. He lived on the street and preached mainly to the poor, sick and hungry. But he didn’t use just words. He healed them and fed them. Church in most buildings has become a waste of time. Words don’t do much to fill you up or keep you warm.

•         Right-wing, white, Republican, Christians are filling the landscape with garbage. This is extremely discouraging. Poor people believe the crap they’re spreading.  Here in Arkansas, the voting public are supporting anyone that talks right-wing bullshit. I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t see it. We got one Harvard lawyer, running for the U.S. Senate, spouting just crazy nonsense, and the citizens are eating it up. He wants to privatize social security, cut it, cut Medicare, take away the right of women to control their own bodies, go to war at the drop of a hat, and voted against student loans, which he used to go to Harvard. (Not all Harvard graduates are smart). He fancies himself a warrior, having volunteered for the infantry in Iraq or Afghanistan. I just shake my head. They say Cotton is on the decline in Arkansas. We can only hope.

•       Iraq is in total chaos. This should not be a surprise to anyone. Saddam Hussein was the only person that could keep the place in order. While not a very nice guy, he did a 100% better job than we are. So we killed him. 

      Right when you think you have seen it all, along comes another election. LONG LIVE THE EMPIRE!

I PUBLISHED THIS ON MARCH 13, 2013

POA Board of Directors Candidates

I have to confess, I'm not overly excited about any of the candidates. A lot of old men, which in the Village generally translates into conservative, ex-military types. Neither is bad in and of itself, but they are usually too tightly wound for me. I don't hear anything innovative coming from anyone. I remain undecided at this moment, but would give the candidates this advice:

1. Proceed with caution in hiring a new general manager. This is a profession that attracts a lot of big heads. I've seen, in my days, more bad city managers than good. Make what you do public. Let us see who you are thinking about. Secrecy is no way to run the Village.
2. The board needs to adopt municipal governing rules. No vote should ever be made in closed session. This is in violation of any municipal or county rules that I have ever heard of, although we are in Arkansas, where seemingly just about anything goes. The board needs clear rules governing its operation. They cannot be allowed to do things on a whim.
3. The board will need to elect a new Chairman and Vice-Chairman. This will set the tone for the coming years. I hope they do it very carefully and not necessarily by seniority. 
4. They need to do away with the time limit imposed on the public when speaking at meetings. It needs to be reasonable and adjusted to the topic being discussed. When the board is done discussing any particular topic, the public should be invited to voice their opinion at that time, not at the end of the meeting. Keeping the times reasonable and the discussion under control is the job of the chairman.
5. The board meetings should be conducted under Roberts Rules of Order. Someone should be appointed parliamentarian.

 Well, that's enough for now. Those are five pressing issues that the board should consider on an immediate basis.

They seemed to do better on hiring the general manager, although the verdict is still out. Nothing on two, four or five. We got a new Chairman and Vice-Chairman, but so far, not an improvement.

Peever Law #55

Peever Law #55

Because someone is exerting their authority does not make them right.

HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE ALERT

Hot Springs Village Director’s Sink Deeper Into Their Own Ineptness

Once again, a majority of the Village directors go behind closed doors to hide decisions that they are making, or plan to make. This situation is way out of hand and needs to be confronted.
If the board had a parliamentarian, he or she should rule the board out of order when attempting to hide behind closed doors to do business clearly not in line with the Open Meetings Act.  If there is no appointed parliamentarian, the board President should.

Not being a municipality, I'm assuming they figure they don't have to follow the open meetings act. And they apparently are not following their own policy adopted in 2012 regarding open meetings. There are clear reasons when an elected body can go into closed session. And they can NEVER take a vote in closed session. The board should adopt municipal rules regarding open and closed meetings, but it doesn't appear they are likely to do so. They don't want to bother letting us know what's going on until it is decided.  At any rate, the whole thing smells worse that the pump station at the beginning of our road on Asombroso.
 
The two new board members are siding with two others to create a majority voting for doing business in secret. What a shame. I thought Mary Neilson stated she would not support hiding behind closed doors when campaigning. At least that’s why I voted for her. (The two new members also voted to keep a left over Scott Randle policy in place that allows only 3 minutes for public comment). Frank Leeming and Jeff Atkins walked out of the last closed meeting being illegally called. I thank both of them for their courage and sense.

The board is deeply disappointing. I thought Keith Keck would be a much more open and less rigid president. So far, I was mistaken. A community that is not operated out in the open is a place where people are not going to want to live. The residents of the Village are a pretty competent group of people. I would not expect this kind of nonsense to be allowed to occur for much longer.

Send any comments to weik@grics.net